What will the future bring: The Sport Horse Market in Cycles

What happened after the financial crisis?

When demand dropped sharply during the financial crisis, many breeders reacted rationally from a long-term perspective: They continued breeding anticipating that the market would eventually recover.

However, breeding is a long-term investment. Horses born during a downturn typically enter the market several years later — often just as demand begins to rebound.

As global economies stabilised and confidence returned in the early to mid-2010s, the sport horse market picked up again. Demand increased, prices rose, and well-produced horses became highly sought after. In hindsight, breeders who maintained breeding during the downturn were well positioned when the market recovered.

Where Are We Now?

Today, the market shows several familiar characteristics:

• Ahigh number of horses on the market
• Increased price sensitivityamong buyers
• Longer selling times
• Breeders reconsidering their breeding programmes or exiting entirely

However, the drivers behind the current situation are at somehow more complex than during the financial crisis.

Why is the market under pressure now?

1. Macroeconomic uncertainty

Inflation, higher interest rates, and global instability have reduced discretionary spending. Buying a sport horse is a major financial commitment, and many buyers are more cautious than they were just a few years ago.

2. Increased supply

Strong years in the market have encouraged breeding, resulting in a larger number of horses now reaching selling age — precisely as demand has softened.

3. Structural changes in demand

Buyers today are often:

• more price-conscious
• more risk-aware
• more focused on rideability and suitability than prestige or pedigree alone

This has led to downward pressure on prices, especially in the mid-range market.

What about the criticism of Equestrian Sport?

Unlike during the financial crisis, the current market is also influenced by public debate around equestrian sport, horse welfare, and social acceptance.

This does matter — but its impact should be viewed realistically.

• Competitive equestrian sport is under increased scrutiny, particularly at the elite level.
• At the same time, grassroots riding, amateur competition, and recreational sport remain strong.
• The demand is shifting toward:
  • well-trained, rideable horses
  • ethical training practices
  • transparency and responsibility

Will the market recover – and when?

Based on historical cycles and current global conditions, a few conclusions can be drawn:

Short term (1–2 years)

• Continued price pressure
• Selective demand
• Fewer impulse purchases
• Increased exits among marginal breeders

Medium term (3–5 years)

This is where history becomes instructive.

If breeding activity declines significantly now — which many signs suggest — the market is likely to face a reduced supply of quality horses in a few years’ time.

Provided that:

• global economic conditions stabilise
• interest rates ease
• confidence returns

…demand is likely to outpace supply again.

Not necessarily to the speculative highs of previous peaks, but to a more balanced, healthier market.

Will it ever “Come Back” fully?

The market is unlikely to return to exactly what it was before.
But that does not mean it will disappear.

Instead, we are likely to see:

• fewer but more professional breeders
• greater emphasis on quality over quantity
• stronger demand for horses that suit amateur and semi-professional riders
• more transparency and structure in how horses are presented and sold

In other words: A correction, not a collapse.

A market that rewards patience and adaptation

History shows that downturns in the sport horse market are rarely permanent. They are painful, especially for breeders and sellers caught at the wrong point in the cycle, but they also reset expectations and remove unsustainable practices.

Those who adapt — by breeding more selectively, focusing on rideability and welfare, and understanding buyer behaviour — are often best positioned when demand returns.

The key question is not whether the market will recover, but who will still be there when it does.

Sources:
FEI – Equine Welfare Strategy & Social Licence to Operate
British Equestrian Federation – Public perception of equestrian sport
University of Copenhagen / ETH Zürich – forskning i equine welfare & social acceptance
FAO – Supply contraction and future price dynamics
OECD – Agricultural investment cyclesFAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) – Livestock production cycles and lag effects
Eurostat – Agricultural production cycles and investment behaviour
World Bank – Global Financial Crisis Overview
OECD – Economic Outlook: The Global Financial Crisis
European Commission – Impact of the 2008 Crisis on Consumer Markets